13th April, 2004

US Network Magazine : Here's something we don't see often: a wireless technology that could actually arrive earlier than predicted. Fourth-generation (4G) cellular services, intended to provide mobile data at rates of 100Mbits/sec or more, were originally scheduled for 2010. Some cell phone companies have moved the target up to 2006, while rival wireless systems could bring similar bandwidth to a few fortunate networkers a lot sooner.

Alas, the enthusiasm for 4G isn't due to accelerated progress; it's because third-generation (3G) services have proven so disappointing. Instead of one standard worldwide, there are three incompatible systems in the United States alone. Voice is carried over the circuit-switched infrastructure inherited from second-generation (2G), not the promised IP. The touted streaming video is just a low-resolution slideshow. Most importantly, the data rates are closer to dial up than DSL.

This is partially due to the technology's immaturity: 3G systems rolled out so far could be considered beta versions, with the real thing still in the future. But 3G will never live up to its creators' promises. Despite early excitement about data, the main economic incentive for 3G is increased capacity for narrowband voice. Though data rates will increase, there isn't enough bandwidth to transfer large e-mail attachments quickly, let alone stream audio or video at broadcast quality as the cell phone vendors first claimed.

If you believe the industry, 4G will enable all this and more: Many companies talk of holophones, remote-controlled cars, and mobile virtual reality. Given their past record of hype, there are good reasons not to believe the more outlandish predictions, but there are also reasons to think that some aspects of 4G could be real.

According to the Fourth-Generation Mobile Forum (www.4gmobile.com), companies will have invested more than $30 billion in 4G by the end of 2002. And unlike previous generations, 4G won't be a product of the cellular industry alone. While the most advanced plans have come from Japanese and European mobile operators, fixed wireless carriers in the United States are beating a separate path to mobility. Most exciting, new types of wireless LAN technology already offer speeds approaching those of 4G.

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